Senior Lecturer of International Relations and Head of Department, Political Science and Public Administration, University of Buea.

What explains the continuous insecurity in CAR, seven months after the fall of President François Bozizé?

The continuous insecurity can be explained by the inability of the new Government and leader, Michel Djotodia, to gain legitimacy by consolidating his position. Moreover, the existence of various rebel groups and the factionalization of Seleka have made it impossible for the new Government to have total control over the territory.

Since CAR gained independence in 1960, it has undergone decades of misrule, largely in the hands of the military until 1993 when President Ange-Félix Patassé came to power. State institutions have suffered from serious functional difficulties. Continuous challenges to successive regimes from various opposition and rebel groups have produced widespread instability with attendant violations of rights and deep-rooted discontent and the erosion of State institutions to the extent that CAR is today on the brink of collapse.

What can the international community do to save the country from total collapse?

By international community here, we quickly think of the United Nations, African Union, ECCAS and probably, the CEMAC. The possibility of the AU, ECCAS and CEMAC providing a solution to the crisis is very slim. Firstly, these regional bodies have over the years not been able to demonstrate any commitment to effectively resolve sub-regional disputes like ECOMOG in West Africa.

Secondly, they lack the logistics and military potentials to undertake such tasks. Lastly, some of the member States of these organizations have either covertly or openly shown support for successive regimes in CAR and can therefore not be trusted for their good faith in providing a genuine solution to the crisis.

Resort therefore is to the U.N. Fortunately, the Security Council of the U.N. has already been briefed on the eventuality of deploying 6,000 peacekeepers in the days ahead. But the question remains as to the approach and nature of the mission. Will it be peace enforcement or maintenance? The outcome largely depends on the nature of the mission. This may set the basis for national reconciliation through the putting in place of an interim Government involving all disputing parties.

What future do you see for the country - especially the transition process - given the current instability?

The future of the Central African Republic to me is very bleak, unless certain steps are taken to ensure national reconciliation. The future therefore lies in the nature of the eventual U.N. peace mission, the reconciliation of various disputants and the intervention of CEMAC member States to establish peace and security in order to set the basis for national reconciliation. All this can only be accomplished in the long term.